You are my favorite Voice of Reason (VOR) when it comes to AI. As the Saudi oil minister said back in the 70s, “The Stone Age did not end for lack of stones.”
Human input will be needed, but how many humans, and for how long? At some point, AI -- having continued to advance while scraping the internet for every last bit and byte of data -- may well be able to do the lighting, costume design, and every other below-the-line task based on simple prompts from a single person. Entire scripts might emerge in seconds from a paragraph of prompts -- essentially, a brief treatment -- written in five minutes.
Or not. At this point, who knows? It certainly seems that any commercials that don't include famous celebrities -- assuming those celebs haven't already licensed their digital doppelgangers -- are likely to be made with AI in the future, and at some point, feature films as well.
All this forty-year veteran of set lighting in Hollywood is certain of is that I'm very glad to be retired. As the ancient Chinese warned, we are cursed to live in "interesting times."
The good news is, and there is good news, VEO3 has actual costs per iteration, in that the more times you re-prompt, the more you pay. Instinct tells me that right now it's drug dealer philosophy across the board, they are essentially giving it away. Notice also that META is bringing 3 Mile Island back online to provide energy. That isn't cheap. When the hedge funds and VCs start griping about timely ROI is when it's going to get real from a cost perspective. It's my belief that the costs will begin to limit usage of high quality images and video done in AI. The net, net is that projects will have to use AI sparingly throughout a 2 hour narrative. Commercials will be the place that is most affected unless the energy costs can be brought in line.
Ah -- good to know ... and this rings true. I recently chatted with a neighbor who used to be a venture-cap guy, and is now retired while devoting his life to advising startups that are trying to bring products and services to market that will help stem the tide of global warming/climate chaos. The only company he was willing to talk about in any detail is building a hydrogen powered electrical generation plant (the hydrogen being made by cracking water with electrolysis rather than from natural gas) for a big AI server facility. As you point out, not cheap.
"The Stone Age did not end for lack of stones." Perfect. Thanks Myronius.
You are my favorite Voice of Reason (VOR) when it comes to AI. As the Saudi oil minister said back in the 70s, “The Stone Age did not end for lack of stones.”
Human input will be needed, but how many humans, and for how long? At some point, AI -- having continued to advance while scraping the internet for every last bit and byte of data -- may well be able to do the lighting, costume design, and every other below-the-line task based on simple prompts from a single person. Entire scripts might emerge in seconds from a paragraph of prompts -- essentially, a brief treatment -- written in five minutes.
Or not. At this point, who knows? It certainly seems that any commercials that don't include famous celebrities -- assuming those celebs haven't already licensed their digital doppelgangers -- are likely to be made with AI in the future, and at some point, feature films as well.
All this forty-year veteran of set lighting in Hollywood is certain of is that I'm very glad to be retired. As the ancient Chinese warned, we are cursed to live in "interesting times."
The good news is, and there is good news, VEO3 has actual costs per iteration, in that the more times you re-prompt, the more you pay. Instinct tells me that right now it's drug dealer philosophy across the board, they are essentially giving it away. Notice also that META is bringing 3 Mile Island back online to provide energy. That isn't cheap. When the hedge funds and VCs start griping about timely ROI is when it's going to get real from a cost perspective. It's my belief that the costs will begin to limit usage of high quality images and video done in AI. The net, net is that projects will have to use AI sparingly throughout a 2 hour narrative. Commercials will be the place that is most affected unless the energy costs can be brought in line.
Ah -- good to know ... and this rings true. I recently chatted with a neighbor who used to be a venture-cap guy, and is now retired while devoting his life to advising startups that are trying to bring products and services to market that will help stem the tide of global warming/climate chaos. The only company he was willing to talk about in any detail is building a hydrogen powered electrical generation plant (the hydrogen being made by cracking water with electrolysis rather than from natural gas) for a big AI server facility. As you point out, not cheap.